观察:东阿阿胶的“至暗时刻” 白马突变斑马
2019-07-24
来源:经济观察报
编辑:石头
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  “公司正面临十几年来最困难的时刻。”或许是预感到危机即将到来,2019年6月18日,在年度股东大会上东阿阿胶总裁秦玉峰说,东阿阿胶十几年高速发展带来市场繁荣的同时,也面临着外部环境变化,需要时间调整。

  果然,一个月后的7月14日晚间,有着“中国滋补养生第一品牌”之称的东阿阿胶(000423.SZ)爆出了一份震惊业界的预告:连涨12年的“白马股”业绩骤降,2019年上半年净利润预计同比下降75%至79%。

  从2006年开始,作为行业龙头的东阿阿胶推行“价值回归战略”,全线产品经过近20次连年涨价,阿胶块差不多成为“药中茅台”:每斤从二三百元一路飙升至三千多元。这一战略引来一大批资本蜂拥而入,农户养驴的利润一度超过了养牛养羊。可是,东阿阿胶不断拉升终端价格对赌的却是消费者的承受力,而市场的承受力并非没有边界。

  眼下,曾带动整个行业繁荣的“价值回归战略”,却把东阿阿胶拖入“最困难的时刻”。


  跌停的“白马股”

  如果说人生就是一场轮回,在执掌东阿阿胶12年后的今天,秦玉峰正面临着职业生涯的第二次重大困境。

  根据2019年一季报显示,东阿阿胶公司实现营业总收入12.9亿元,同比减少23.8%,归属母公司净利润为3.9亿元,同比减少35.5%。可到了2019年7月14日,则爆出了更让业界震惊的半年预报:2019年上半年净利润预计同比下降75%至79%。

  次日,这支长期绩优的“白马股”一反常态、开盘跌停,报35.42元/股,较上周五收盘的39.35元/股跌9.99%,东阿阿胶市值较上一交易日蒸发25.7亿元。财经作家叶檀形容其为“‘白马’突变‘斑马’”。

  7月15日上午,中金公司紧急组织东阿阿胶管理层召开战略解读电话会,并发布了《东阿阿胶全年推进渠道梳理短期业绩承压》研究报告。该报告称,考虑到短期业绩承压,中金公司将东阿阿胶评级下调至“中性”,下调目标价32.4元至33.8元。

  在这次会议上,秦玉峰解释,东阿阿胶高速发展了十几年,主要依托阿胶的文化营销策略和价值回归战略,以回归历史价位和地位。“现在遇到了外部环境变化,价值回归走到了比较高的位置。”

  按照秦玉峰早前的设想,价值回归战略的终极目标将是阿胶块价格回升至五六千元一斤。如今,经过18次连年提价,阿胶块已经超过每斤3000元大关。

  原本,渠道商是靠囤货来盈利,因为阿胶保质期是5年,如果经销商囤货,差价收益就比较大。“现在渠道发生了变化,由靠囤货转为靠周转率,我们顺应渠道变化,进行了降库存的调整,是这次业绩下滑的主要原因。”面对急于探究东阿阿胶业绩突变原因的投资者,秦玉峰解释道。

  而东阿阿胶的价值回归战略、渠道商囤货盈利模式的形成以及当下阿胶市场的风云突变,还要追溯到秦玉峰刚上任时遭遇到的第一次重大困境。

  2006年,秦玉峰接任东阿阿胶总经理一职。彼时,他正面临着企业与行业带来的三大难题:其一,产品价格低、利润薄,产品大多销往农村市场,直到2009年阿胶块市场价每斤仅为二三百元;其二,原料短缺、频现告警,因毛驴被农机替代,养殖户越来越少,驴皮越来越稀缺,生产面临“无米之炊”;其三,整个行业市场陷入萧条,业内另一大企业亏损严重、股权被出售竟一度无人问津。

  为了突破困局、重塑品牌形象,秦玉峰首先打破了东阿阿胶过去的价格与市场定位,开始推行“价值回归”战略:一面力主东阿阿胶“从农村妇女转向城市白领”,一面不断拉升阿胶终端价格。

  “清朝时,阿胶的价格是白银3.2-4两/斤,民国23年(1934年)北京同济堂参茸阿胶庄药目表上所印一斤阿胶16块大洋。”依照金银比价,秦玉峰放出豪言,“阿胶块最终要回归到五六千元一斤”。

  从那以后,“东阿阿胶又涨价了”成了中国医药保健品行业最受热议的话题之一。


  价格飞涨与产业复兴

  在“价值回归战略”下,东阿阿胶产品价格就像是山路上一只疯跑的野驴,一路飙升。2009年底,东阿阿胶的胶块出厂价尚为393元/公斤;2010年,竟然连续四次提价、涨幅高达52.4%,阿胶块涨至599元/公斤。

  一直以来,阿胶价格都受到政府物价部门最高限价的约束,上限为806元/公斤。然而,从2010年12月28日起,阿胶块不再纳入政府定价范围,企业可以自主定价,东阿阿胶提价空间也随即而来。

  2011年1月6日,东阿阿胶发布有史以来幅度最大的一次涨价公告,阿胶块产品出厂价上调幅度近60%。短短三年,阿胶块出厂价翻了一倍有余,每公斤约954元。

  此后,东阿阿胶连年涨价。据不完全统计,从2006年到2018年底,东阿阿胶总共进行了18次提价,阿胶块零售价从每斤约80元飙升至3000元以上,涨幅接近40倍,售价远超茅台,成为中医药产业名副其实的第一大单品。正因如此,阿胶也有了“药中茅台”的称号。

  作为东阿阿胶常年的战略顾问,特劳特中国公司总经理邓德隆表示,为了维护阿胶整体行业的可持续发展,每次提价东阿阿胶就会放弃一部分低端消费者给竞争对手,再通过一系列文化营销开拓新的高端消费群,不断进行消费群体的置换、升级。

  秦玉峰表示,随着阿胶价格连年飙升,其销售对象从原来广大农村中年妇女转移到城市白领,销售终端也从农村转向城市,高端消费群体成为推动东阿阿胶价值回归的决定性力量。

  阿胶价格持续拉升,不仅引得业内企业扩大规模,也诱惑着一大批业外资本进场。如业内的福胶集团投资10亿元启动扩产项目,业外的同仁堂(600085.SH)、太极集团(600129.SH)、佛慈、九芝堂等纷纷抢购驴皮、投资设厂,急欲分一杯羹。

  原本,东阿阿胶涨价多以原料驴皮日趋紧张为由,各路资本的涌入更加大了上游原料的供需失衡,国内买不到驴皮的企业就将目光转向亚非拉地区,连美国CNN也纳闷“为什么中国满世界买驴”。

  在终端价格杠杆的撬动下,产业末端利润不断沿产业链向上传导至前端养殖环节。一时间,全国驴皮价格飞涨。秦玉峰向经济观察报展示了一幅《2005年-2016年驴皮变化趋势图》。该图显示,2005年驴皮仅为39元/kg,2011年已攀升至98元/kg,2013年更是达到160元/kg。2013年,东阿阿胶驴皮收购成本增加了2亿元。

  让人感到意外的是,秦玉峰却说,这恰恰是东阿阿胶顺势而为、有意识地不断推动利润向最上游传导——增加的2亿元中,相当一部分转移到养殖户手里,养驴的利润在部分地区已然超过养牛、养猪。在秦玉峰看来,“如果毛驴没人养了,驴皮越来越少,传承千年的阿胶产业必将‘无米下锅’而不复存在”。

  此后,驴皮价格持续攀升,2014年涨至300元/kg,2016年一路攀升到500元/kg。这一年,秦玉峰迎来了全国各地一百多个养殖企业,其中不乏许多煤老板、房老板,他们的目的只有一个——商讨养驴以及驴皮收购。

  彼时的秦玉峰信心满满地制定出“双百万计划”,即在蒙东辽西和聊城建两个百万头驴养殖基地。“中国农业只有借道资本市场,形成富人养驴、资本养驴的大格局,才能真正实现规模化、标准化、现代化,对接下游工业产业。”

  在“价值回归战略”下,经过价格杠杆的撬动,无论是下游阿胶还是上游毛驴养殖,都开始具备了投资价值。阿胶产业迎来了一个面向资本市场的窗口期。此时此刻,秦玉峰上任时面临的三大难题被产业的复兴所缓解。

  可少有人能察觉的是,阿胶价格一路飞涨却为今天东阿阿胶陷入新的困局埋下了隐患。


  消费承受力边界

  2018年12月初,经济观察报记者走进一家位于东阿县阿胶街、与东阿阿胶近在咫尺的阿胶专卖店。当时正值东阿阿胶最后一次涨价之前,阿胶块市场统一零售价为每斤2998元。可这家专卖店老板从柜台中掏出一盒红标500克阿胶块说,这盒售价只有1680元,想要多少都有。记者接过来仔细一看,这盒阿胶的生产日期为“2016年”,是其在两年前的囤货。

  原来,尽管每盒阿胶包装上都标有3到5年保质期,但整个行业都流传着“陈年阿胶会去除燥气,入药更有效”的说法。任何商品一旦具备可长期储存和价格持续看涨两大特点,就像茅台一样,渠道商们自然争相囤积居奇、待价而沽。

  正如秦玉峰所说:“渠道原本靠囤货来盈利,我们涨价所有渠道商都盈利,因为阿胶保质期是5年,如果经销商囤货,差价收益就比较大。”

  阿胶18次提价抬高了渠道商对未来市场的预期,就像房子买涨不买跌,每次涨价都激发渠道商疯狂囤货。这一方面使渠道商在之后销售获得了更多利润,一方面也驱动着东阿阿胶业绩的增长。

  伴随着阿胶块从最初一斤二三百元到突破3000元大关,东阿阿胶营收也从2005年的9.4亿元增长至2017年的73.72亿元,增长了7.84倍;净利润从2005年的1.14亿元增长至2017年的20.44亿元,增长了17.93倍,年复合增长率高达20%以上。

  可是,市场上东阿阿胶很少能真正兑现所标明的统一零售价。因为渠道商总是把几年前的低价库存放到柜台上、比照今天的零售价打折出售,高价变现。位于济南高新区一家东阿阿胶代理商表示,仓库中仍然存有一定数量四五年前的存货,因当时进价便宜凡买3斤及以上者可按7折优惠。

  山东省阿胶行业协会一位专家介绍,作为行业龙头,东阿阿胶“涨价—囤货—再涨价—再囤货”模式影响着整个行业——几乎每个企业所属的渠道商都因其连年涨价而积压了大量库存。据他所知,部分阿胶企业即使一年不生产,积压的库存也消化不完。

  毫无疑问,在“价值回归战略”下,无论是上游毛驴养殖还是下游阿胶制造,均一度空前繁荣。但只有业内少数人才真正明了,产业繁荣是建立在寅吃卯粮、透支未来消费的基础上。价格高涨、产业繁荣的背后早已形成一个巨大的堰塞湖:一方面,涨价对赌的是消费者的承受力,这种承受力并非没有边界;另一方面,渠道商多年来不顾实际消费而积压的库存短时间难以消化,即使再次涨价也无力囤货;再者,良莠不齐的竞争对手入市,假冒伪劣、粗制滥造等恶意竞争抢夺着越来越小的市场空间。

  东阿阿胶高级副总裁刘延风表示,过去十几年阿胶品类快速发展,竞争者众多,过去一两年行业出现过度竞争,一些竞争对手把价格降到东阿阿胶的一半,市面上“买一赠多”的行为比比皆是。

  目前,阿胶业第二大品牌福胶与东阿阿胶的阿胶块在市场上相差千元左右,其他不知名阿胶企业价格差距更大。山东省阿胶行业协会会长李贵海指出,近年来,阿胶企业销量与利润都在走低,部分生产阿胶的企业甚至连年亏损。可大量没有诚信的企业利用市场监管的空白,通过假冒伪劣、以次充好维持低价与利润。

  去年山东某地查获了一个微商,假冒伪劣的产量居然超过了东阿阿胶与福牌阿胶的总和;河北一家企业竟用200吨驴皮“熬出”了4000吨阿胶;有业内权威专家估算,市场上有近8成阿胶及制品是假冒伪劣……

  “建立规范的行业标准,明确谁来检测、谁来监管阿胶市场,是迫切需要解决的问题。”李贵海呼吁,《中国药典》中仅仅规定,阿胶不能掺杂牛皮,但对马皮、猪皮等却没有任何强行禁止的规定。这给了大量中小企业掺杂其他原料的空间。目前阿胶行业产值已近千亿,但日常抽检、市场监管却几乎处于空白地带。整个阿胶行业亟待规范。

  “公司未来会根据实际情况调整价格,价值规律决定了产品价格。”东阿阿胶一位不愿具名的相关负责人表示,自去年该公司已开展渠道调整和去库存工作,预计渠道的调整期在1年以上,今年下半年有望开始筑底。目前,公司正积极调整营销策略,整合营销渠道,开拓新渠道新市场,理性控制下游库存。这位负责人表示,东阿阿胶也在考虑外延式发展,如寻找合适标的适时进行并购。
  商场如战场。

  如今,秦玉峰的微信头像是一幅漫画——秦玉峰侧骑在一头乌头驴上,边走边看着手中的《秦氏兵法》。在“最困难的时刻”,这位曾带动整个行业空前繁荣的领军者又当如何完成自我救赎,实现“阿胶将会迎来第二轮十年高成长”的预言呢?

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